It’s that time again. When Mark Carney and his cohorts ascend Mount Olympus once more for the latest round of talks to decide the immediate future for Canadian mortgage holders. The prevailing feeling however is that little will result from this month’s scheming and plotting. Another meeting will pass with rates unchanged and the variable rate mortgage holders can rest easily until July 19th signals the next round of talks. While some speculators (who clearly haven’t been paying enough attention to Morcan Direct’s blog) earlier in the year cited this meeting as the one to kick off a series of interest rate rises, it now appears those speculators were somewhat premature in their estimations. Recent developments have meant it is now highly unlikely we will see a rate increase tomorrow.
Economic growth for the first quarter in the US, Canada’s primary trading partner, came in at a highly disappointing 1.8% with consumer spending slowing. And while Canada’s strong dollar has seen investment increase and manufacturing experience a long overdue rebound, these are still highly uncertain times for the Canadian economy. As expressed by Governor Mark Carney earlier this month, fears persist that rising commodity prices, combined with an inflated currency could impede Canada’s ability to increase demand in the US. The commodity boom is no longer serving Canada in the way it had previously during China’s rapid expansion. These concerns combined with the ever worsening European debt crisis and the impending impact of fiscal austerity in the US driven by irrational desires to cut the budget mean a rate hike tomorrow is highly unlikely.
While we feel that interest rate rises are coming before the end of the year we, at Morcan Direct, still feel the variable rate offers the greatest value for money. However we always advise our clients that if they feel ill-suited to the uncertainty of a variable rate, they should opt for a fixed. And the good news is that being adverse to risk has rarely been so well rewarded, with fixed rates plummeting in recent weeks. Fixed rates, as we predicted they would, have fallen repeatedly and there has never been a better time to opt for fixed. If you have any questions about anything you’ve read here or would like to hear how the impending rise in prime may affect you, please feel free to contact us at 416-214-9000 for sound, unbiased mortgage advice.